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Tuesday 21 October

Source : © European Union, 2025 - EP

Tuesday 21 October

Source : © European Union, 2025 - EP

Tuesday 21 October

Source : © European Union, 2025 - EP

Tuesday 21 October

Source : © European Union, 2025 - EP

Összesen 239 közlekedési balesetet regisztrált a rendőrség a múlt héten, hat ember – köztük két gyalogos - vesztette életét.

Der Verband der Schweizer Elektrizitätsunternehmen unterstützt das Stromabkommen der Schweiz mit der EU, aber mit grossen Vorbehalten. Die innerstaatliche Umsetzung des Abkommens lehnt der Verband als «nicht tragbar» ab.

Die Schweizer Exporte erholten sich im September. Besonders die Ausfuhren in die USA legten deutlich zu. Das sind die Gründe.

Der amerikanische Schach-Grossmeister Daniel Naroditsky ist überraschend im Alter von 29 Jahren verstorben. Bekannt für seine Online-Tutorials und als Kommentator, hinterlässt er eine grosse Lücke in der Schachwelt.

Fussballmärchen in Schweden: Mjällby AIF, einst drittklassig und fast bankrott, sichert sich vorzeitig den Meistertitel. Der Dorfklub aus dem 1'500-Seelen-Ort feiert in Göteborg mit Fans seinen ersten Triumph in der höchsten Liga.

Eine weitere tote Geisel aus dem Gazastreifen wurde identifiziert. Der 41-jährige israelische Soldat Tal Haimi wurde am 7. Oktober getötet und verschleppt. Die Hamas hat bisher 13 tote Geiseln übergeben, weniger als vereinbart.

Rien ne va plus entre Novak Đoković et le régime d'Aleksandar Vučić. L'ancien numéro un mondial du tennis a apporté son soutien aux étudiants et le tournoi ATP de Belgrade, dirigé par son frère, aura lieu cette année à Athènes.

- Articles / Courrier des Balkans, Serbie, Grèce, Sports, Une - Diaporama, Une - Diaporama - En premier

Rien ne va plus entre Novak Đoković et le régime d'Aleksandar Vučić. L'ancien numéro un mondial du tennis a apporté son soutien aux étudiants et le tournoi ATP de Belgrade, dirigé par son frère, aura lieu cette année à Athènes.

- Articles / Courrier des Balkans, Serbie, Grèce, Sports, Une - Diaporama

Donald Trump will sich ein bleibendes Denkmal setzen. Dafür lässt der US-Präsident einen prunkvollen Ballsaal auf dem Gelände des Weissen Hauses errichten. Nun haben am Ostflügel des Präsidentensitzes Abrissarbeiten begonnen.

Russland führt einen Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine. Im Ticker halten wir dich über die neusten Entwicklungen auf dem Laufenden.

A helyhatósági választások időpontjáról szóló vita lezárult, a választásokra 2026-ban, az eredeti időpontban kerül sor.

In today’s edition: Europe’s dependence on the US grows as Trump shapes foreign policy from afar, Bulgaria opens its skies for Putin ahead of the Budapest summit, and the Commission begins quietly dismantling the Green Deal under political pressure

Les conservateurs du GERB sont revenus au pouvoir, avec l'indispensable soutien du DPS de l'oligarque Delyan Peevski. Celui-ci utilise l'argument de la « lutte contre la corruption » pour éliminer rivaux et adversaires, à Sofia comme à Varna. Décryptage.

- Articles / Une - Diaporama - En premier, GERB, Courrier des Balkans, Bulgarie, Politique, Défense, police et justice, Une - Diaporama

Die Winnipeg Jets und Nino Niederreiter siegen schon wieder. Das 2:1 gegen Calgary ist der fünfte Sieg im sechsten Spiel, der Schweizer leitet die Wende ein.

Veszélyes vegyi anyagok és harci vegyi anyagok jogosulatlan birtoklása miatt vonult ki a környezetvédelmi rendőrség az egykori nyustyai vegyi üzem területére.

Higher income and fintech expansion boosted credit growth, even as monetary policy remained effective. Credit: IMF

By Swarnali A. Hannan, Daniel Leigh, and Rui Xu
WASHINGTON DC, Oct 21 2025 (IPS)

At 15 percent, Brazil’s monetary policy interest rate (called Selic) is one of the highest among major economies. Yet in 2024, bank credit grew by 11.5 percent and corporate bond issuance rose by 30 percent.

This credit expansion—in the face of high policy rates—benefited many individuals, households, and companies. But it also raised questions about the effectiveness of monetary policy itself. In other words, why did the central bank’s efforts to cool down the economy, by making financing more expensive, seem not to be working?

Our analysis, in the context of Brazil’s latest yearly economic review (the Article IV consultation), shows that concerns have been largely unwarranted and that monetary policy transmission in Brazil remains effective. Indeed, recent data indicates that credit growth is starting to slow down.

So, what exactly has been happening?

Even as monetary policy was doing its job as intended, we saw two other factors playing a critical role: strong income growth and the country’s success in expanding financial inclusion. These factors boosted the demand for credit and its supply.

A committed central bank

Brazil’s was the first major central bank to hike rates during the pandemic. After a period of easing, it started a new tightening cycle in September 2024. These decisions have been appropriate and guided by the need to bring inflation and inflation expectations down to its 3 percent target.

The country’s twelve-month inflation rate reached 5.1 percent in August, down slightly from the previous month, but still well above target this year. Inflation expectations are also projected to stay above target over an eighteen-month horizon. This explains the rise in policy rates since the pandemic, in line with standard inflation-targeting principles.

How effective is monetary policy transmission?

To gauge the effectiveness of Brazil’s monetary policy tightening, our report estimates how changes in the central bank’s policy interest rate pass through to bank lending rates paid by households and businesses.

We find that a 1 percentage point increase in the policy rate raises lending rates by around 0.7 percentage point after four months. To raise average lending rates in the economy by one percentage point, the monetary policy rate must increase by about 1.4 percentage points, since roughly 40 percent of total credit is comprised of government-directed loans that are less responsive to policy rate changes.

The analysis also suggests that since 2020, corporate lending rates have become more responsive to changes in the basic rate. This may in part result from the 2018 reform of Brazil’s large development bank, BNDES, which aligned its lending rates with long-term market rates.

Bank-level analysis shows corporate loans adjust faster than consumer loans, likely due to tighter margins and more experienced borrowers. In turn, payroll-backed consumer loans are the least responsive because of rate caps.

What drove credit growth

Although Brazil’s monetary policy is working, credit growth has been strong over the past few years. This was due to both cyclical factors and structural changes. On the cyclical side, Brazil’s economy has grown faster than expected, with low unemployment and rising incomes driving higher credit demand.

Moreover, Brazil has been making significant structural changes that have increased financial inclusion and credit availability.

The rapid expansion of fintech lenders gave more people access to credit. In 2024, digital banks and other fintech lenders accounted for a quarter of the credit card market and over 10 percent of non-payroll personal loans.

Increased competition reduced banking-sector concentration and lowered average lending rates of incumbent banks. In addition, bond-market financing for corporates as a share of GDP tripled in the last decade, driven by tax-exempt debentures. All these factors supported credit growth.

With a 15 percent basic rate, Brazil’s central bank has administered a strong dose of monetary tightening to temper credit growth and return inflation and expectations to target. New loan volumes have been falling since April, further suggesting that the treatment is working.

More broadly, Brazil’s economy is showing signs of moderation amid tight monetary and fiscal policies and elevated global policy uncertainty. Overall, our research shows that concerns about the lack of effectiveness of monetary are proving to be largely unwarranted and that monetary policy transmission in Brazil remains active.

Daniel Leigh is IMF mission chief for Brazil; Swarnali A. Hannan is a deputy division chief in the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department; and Rui Xu is an economist in the Monetary and Capital Markets Department

IPS UN Bureau

 

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